Meryl opened at 1-1 and I bet it, bet it, bet it, bet it and now it's at -500. That line is still screwed up, as Annette Benning was lucky she got nominated. She shouldn't be a 3-1 or whatever she is at right now.
There's not too many plays here as of now. I think the favorites are way overvalued, therefore the key is to get some value in the underdogs. Borat for instance, is overvalued at -700, as is Departed to win best drama.
There's not too many plays here as of now. I think the favorites are way overvalued, therefore the key is to get some value in the underdogs. Borat for instance, is overvalued at -700, as is Departed to win best drama.
Golden Globes are the graveyard of favorites. wait till near sho time when the favorite prices spike and blindly play all the 2nd and 3rd choices at the best price you can find.
Oscars are for big favorites (ie the -900 choices win 100% of the time) but not Golden globes.
Oscars are for big favorites (ie the -900 choices win 100% of the time) but not Golden globes.
Plusses for Babel:
+ One can point out that it does have the most nominations.
+ They went for The Hours over Gangs of New York (feels like the same kind of year as well).
Minuses for Babel:
- The HFPA likes to predict the Oscars though and went for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King over Cold Mountain.
- Few other award bodies have given 'Babel' their top prize.
Agree with ttt about watching out closer to the time of next Monday as to the sneak attacks*.
Sacha Baron Cohen should win 'Best Actor - Comedy/Musical' easily. He opened at 'evens' at Pinnacle and was quickly bet down to 4/1 ON which is indicative of the weak competition he's up against as well as the buzz surrounding him.
* I really, really regret not listening to the hype a few days before the Oscar ceremony from the likes of Leonard Maltin about Crash that he was told voters were voting for it like crazy.
After the Golden Globe nominations, Crash hit 25/1 over at The Greek. Joe Public hit the 4/1 and bet 'Crash' down to 11/10 (and even 'evens' with crappy Bodog) in the last week before the day of the Oscar ceremony.
+ One can point out that it does have the most nominations.
+ They went for The Hours over Gangs of New York (feels like the same kind of year as well).
Minuses for Babel:
- The HFPA likes to predict the Oscars though and went for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King over Cold Mountain.
- Few other award bodies have given 'Babel' their top prize.
Agree with ttt about watching out closer to the time of next Monday as to the sneak attacks*.
Sacha Baron Cohen should win 'Best Actor - Comedy/Musical' easily. He opened at 'evens' at Pinnacle and was quickly bet down to 4/1 ON which is indicative of the weak competition he's up against as well as the buzz surrounding him.
* I really, really regret not listening to the hype a few days before the Oscar ceremony from the likes of Leonard Maltin about Crash that he was told voters were voting for it like crazy.
After the Golden Globe nominations, Crash hit 25/1 over at The Greek. Joe Public hit the 4/1 and bet 'Crash' down to 11/10 (and even 'evens' with crappy Bodog) in the last week before the day of the Oscar ceremony.
Nah. Some are pointing out that the potential upset if any would be Little Miss Sunshine though.
http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/2007/gurus_070112.html#globes
OT: Sacha won't be appearing in character (for shame!) as he's a bit of a dour character off-screen, has recently done the awards circuit as SBC in a bid to separate the character from the actor.
Some are suggesting that if SBC appears as himself it would help his (very slim) Oscar chances.
Most of the potential upsets appear to be pretty much in public domain. Babel, Pan's Labyrinth and Eddie Murphy/Brad Pitt over Jack Nicholson.
Gawd, I hope they happen but I get pessimistically panicky 'round these times.
http://www.moviecitynews.com/awards/2007/gurus_070112.html#globes
OT: Sacha won't be appearing in character (for shame!) as he's a bit of a dour character off-screen, has recently done the awards circuit as SBC in a bid to separate the character from the actor.
Some are suggesting that if SBC appears as himself it would help his (very slim) Oscar chances.
Most of the potential upsets appear to be pretty much in public domain. Babel, Pan's Labyrinth and Eddie Murphy/Brad Pitt over Jack Nicholson.
Gawd, I hope they happen but I get pessimistically panicky 'round these times.
The offshore books knew that the sharps were sniffing 'round Babel and the odds kept on dropping...any idea how much it fell down to on Monday (I was offline, couldn't check up on the odds).
Must have been a helluva watch in-running as Babel won absolutely nothing and then it's the last award of the night and look who comes on to present it...it's Ahnuld who comes hobbling onto the stage on his crutches and I suppose some folks knew that something was going on with that booking.
Shame the only other odds against winners were Eddie Murphy and Cars (stayed away from both, thought the HFPA would go nuts for either Jack Nicholson or Brad Pitt. I thought Happy Feet might win but there were tons of amateur predictions thinking Cars would win instead).
They had to give Clint Eastwood something after all and he gets 'Foreign Film'.
Nice night it appears even if you had to lay some heavy juice. :>Grin>
Unlucky for those who got burnt on The Departed or Pan's Labyrinth though. :neenee:
Must have been a helluva watch in-running as Babel won absolutely nothing and then it's the last award of the night and look who comes on to present it...it's Ahnuld who comes hobbling onto the stage on his crutches and I suppose some folks knew that something was going on with that booking.
Shame the only other odds against winners were Eddie Murphy and Cars (stayed away from both, thought the HFPA would go nuts for either Jack Nicholson or Brad Pitt. I thought Happy Feet might win but there were tons of amateur predictions thinking Cars would win instead).
They had to give Clint Eastwood something after all and he gets 'Foreign Film'.
Nice night it appears even if you had to lay some heavy juice. :>Grin>
Unlucky for those who got burnt on The Departed or Pan's Labyrinth though. :neenee:
James Trout said:The offshore books knew that the sharps were sniffing 'round Babel and the odds kept on dropping...any idea how much it fell down to on Monday (I was offline, couldn't check up on the odds).
Must have been a helluva watch in-running as Babel won absolutely nothing and then it's the last award of the night and look who comes on to present it...it's Ahnuld who comes hobbling onto the stage on his crutches and I suppose some folks knew that something was going on with that booking.
Shame the only other odds against winners were Eddie Murphy and Cars (stayed away from both, thought the HFPA would go nuts for either Jack Nicholson or Brad Pitt. I thought Happy Feet might win but there were tons of amateur predictions thinking Cars would win instead).
They had to give Clint Eastwood something after all and he gets 'Foreign Film'.
Nice night it appears even if you had to lay some heavy juice. :>Grin>
Unlucky for those who got burnt on The Departed or Pan's Labyrinth though. :neenee:
actually eddie murphy was -325 at betcris.
only dogs to hit were cars and babel.
